SCHEDULE: NOV 15-20, 2015

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Societal Impact of Earthquake Simulations at Extreme Scale

SESSION: Plenary Invited Talks - Franklin M. Orr, Thomas H. Jordan

EVENT TYPE: Invited Talks, Keynote & Plenary Talks

EVENT TAG(S): HPC Beginner Friendly, Simulation, Scientific Computing, Applications

TIME: 9:15AM - 10:00AM

SESSION CHAIR(S): Bernd Mohr

Presenter(s):Thomas H. Jordan

ROOM:Ballroom D

ABSTRACT:

The highly nonlinear, multiscale dynamics of large earthquakes is a wicked physics problem that challenges HPC systems at extreme computational scales. This presentation will summarize how earthquake simulations at increasing levels of scale and sophistication have contributed to our understanding of seismic phenomena, focusing on the practical use of simulations to reduce seismic risk and enhance community resilience. Milestones include the terascale simulations of large San Andreas earthquakes that culminated in the landmark 2008 ShakeOut planning exercise and the recent petascale simulations that have created the first physics-based seismic hazard models. From the latter it is shown that accurate simulations can potentially reduce the total hazard uncertainty by about one-third relative to empirical models, which would lower the exceedance probabilities at high hazard levels by orders of magnitude. Realizing this gain in forecasting probability will require enhanced computational capabilities, but it could have a broad impact on risk-reduction strategies, especially for critical facilities such as large dams, nuclear power plants, and energy transportation networks.

Chair/Presenter Details:

Bernd Mohr (Chair) - Juelich Supercomputing Center|

Thomas H. Jordan - University of Southern California

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